Predicting airfares - To buy or not to buy?
Airfare is one of the great unpredictables in travel. Travelers forever have planned vacations around airline prices. Sure there are well-known seasonal factors (Hawaii is most expensive over Christmas and so on...). But predicting airfares is challenging.
Today, savvy travelers looking to get the best deals on flights have a variety of tools at their disposal. These platforms use sophisticated algorithms and AI to predict whether the cost of a flight is likely to go up or down, helping users decide the best time to book their tickets.
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AirHint claims that its flight price tracker and predictor has better than 80% prediction accuracy to help users save money on flights. Their platform works across approximately 30 U.S. and international airlines.
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Hopper's Price Prediction features are only available via their mobile app. Hopper analyzes trillions of data points to offer guidance on whether you should book your trip now or wait for a better price.
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Similarly, Kayak's Price Forecast analyzes data from flight searches on Kayak to help predict whether you should wait or book now. As Kayak points out, "just remember, our recommendation can’t be guaranteed. We always say, if you think you’ve found a good deal — book it."
Kayak and others (e.g., Skyscanner) also offer Price Alert features that make it easy to track fares on specific flights or flights to specific destinations and will notify you when fares change.
Way back in 2006, Seattle-based startup Farecast was the first to launch airfare predictions. Farecast initially offered airfare predictions for travelers departing from Seattle and Boston to over 100 destinations. The site provided users with information on whether the lowest fares for their trip were rising or dropping over the next seven days, along with expected price movements, confidence levels, and purchasing tips. This innovation marked a significant step in the use of data and predictive analytics for travel planning. Microsoft acquired Farecast in 2008. Microsoft subsequently shut down the flight price prediction tool in 2014.
June 7, 2023.